The almond industry is entering the new crop year from a solid position according to a recent market update from Blue Diamond Growers. This is thanks in no small part to exports to India.
The 470.7-million-pound carry-in (of which only 447.1 million pounds is estimated as edible) is down from prior year and confirms the tightness in supply from one crop to the next. Downward pressure on crop potential and overall supply and demand fundamentals continue to support a stable-to-firm market outlook. Export demand remains healthy with the coming weeks expected to provide clarity on crop size, kernel sizing, and the degree to which rapidly appreciated pricing can be absorbed by end markets.
The 2026 crop year started on a positive note, meeting strong industry expectations. August shipments totaled 190 million pounds. Exports reached 143.2 million pounds, an increase of 31%, while the domestic market shipped 46.8 million pounds at a modest -3.3% decrease versus last year. With six of the last seven last months’ total shipments outpacing previous year, the industry continues to experience strength in global demand.
India was the clear standout in August, receiving 44.3 million pounds, up approximately 170% from 16.4 million pounds last year. The increase reflects stronger replenishment ahead of the festival season and a normalization from the unusually low August 2025 shipment level. The magnitude of the increase is notable given elevated pricing and confirms India’s continued importance as the primary outlet for California inshell almonds. Local consumption will become increasingly important ahead of festival season as buyers will begin to replenish stocks that dwindled at the end of the 2025 crop year.
August domestic shipments totaled 46.8 million pounds, down 3.3% year over year. While this may not have been the start to the year the industry had hoped for, the improvement in shipment performance over the last six months provides optimism that the market has stabilized. As prices rose over the last month, purchasing activity slowed and shifted to closer, strategic locations. This cautious approach is expected to continue. Looking ahead, domestic demand is expected to remain steady, with a pipeline of commitments providing support for shipments in the next few months.
The 2026 crop is progressing rapidly with current receipts for August coming in at 401.9 million pounds. The pacing of receipts is 55% above August 2025 due to harvest beginning approximately 2 weeks earlier than prior year. The increase in receipts over last year is not a reflection of projected crop receipts for 2026.
Nonpareil and Independence varieties are largely harvested with pollinizer varieties following closely behind. In some of the most advanced areas, growers have completed orchard harvest activities and are focusing on post-harvest practices and minimizing water stress to support next season’s crop.
Current Nonpareil reject levels are the lowest in several years, though ticking up slightly, driven by a third flight of navel orangeworm. Independence rejects are trending higher than last year, mainly due to brown spot from leaf-footed plant bugs.
Yields are variable in Nonpareil and Independence depending on the region. Speculation on smaller kernel sizes coming into harvest are beginning to be realized. Yields in Nonpareil and Independence receipts are signaling a lower 2026 crop than 2025, as forecasted. There is continued downward pressure on crop potential, which will be informed by pollinizer varieties that hullers are beginning to process. Next month’s report may reflect further shifts to the forecast as pollinizer volume comes in and is accounted for.
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