California Ag Network

Tag: India almond market

  • Almond Market Looks Strong Going Into 2027

    The almond industry is entering the new crop year from a solid position according to a recent market update from Blue Diamond Growers. This is thanks in no small part to exports to India.

    The 470.7-million-pound carry-in (of which only 447.1 million pounds is estimated as edible) is down from prior year and confirms the tightness in supply from one crop to the next. Downward pressure on crop potential and overall supply and demand fundamentals continue to support a stable-to-firm market outlook. Export demand remains healthy with the coming weeks expected to provide clarity on crop size, kernel sizing, and the degree to which rapidly appreciated pricing can be absorbed by end markets.

    The 2026 crop year started on a positive note, meeting strong industry expectations. August shipments totaled 190 million pounds. Exports reached 143.2 million pounds, an increase of 31%, while the domestic market shipped 46.8 million pounds at a modest -3.3% decrease versus last year. With six of the last seven last months’ total shipments outpacing previous year, the industry continues to experience strength in global demand.

    India was the clear standout in August, receiving 44.3 million pounds, up approximately 170% from 16.4 million pounds last year. The increase reflects stronger replenishment ahead of the festival season and a normalization from the unusually low August 2025 shipment level. The magnitude of the increase is notable given elevated pricing and confirms India’s continued importance as the primary outlet for California inshell almonds. Local consumption will become increasingly important ahead of festival season as buyers will begin to replenish stocks that dwindled at the end of the 2025 crop year.

    August domestic shipments totaled 46.8 million pounds, down 3.3% year over year. While this may not have been the start to the year the industry had hoped for, the improvement in shipment performance over the last six months provides optimism that the market has stabilized. As prices rose over the last month, purchasing activity slowed and shifted to closer, strategic locations. This cautious approach is expected to continue. Looking ahead, domestic demand is expected to remain steady, with a pipeline of commitments providing support for shipments in the next few months.

    The 2026 crop is progressing rapidly with current receipts for August coming in at 401.9 million pounds. The pacing of receipts is 55% above August 2025 due to harvest beginning approximately 2 weeks earlier than prior year. The increase in receipts over last year is not a reflection of projected crop receipts for 2026.
    Nonpareil and Independence varieties are largely harvested with pollinizer varieties following closely behind. In some of the most advanced areas, growers have completed orchard harvest activities and are focusing on post-harvest practices and minimizing water stress to support next season’s crop.

    Current Nonpareil reject levels are the lowest in several years, though ticking up slightly, driven by a third flight of navel orangeworm. Independence rejects are trending higher than last year, mainly due to brown spot from leaf-footed plant bugs.

    Yields are variable in Nonpareil and Independence depending on the region. Speculation on smaller kernel sizes coming into harvest are beginning to be realized. Yields in Nonpareil and Independence receipts are signaling a lower 2026 crop than 2025, as forecasted. There is continued downward pressure on crop potential, which will be informed by pollinizer varieties that hullers are beginning to process. Next month’s report may reflect further shifts to the forecast as pollinizer volume comes in and is accounted for.

  • Almond Board of California Looks to Improve India Marketing Strategy

    India remains the most important export market for California almonds, making it central to the industry’s long-term outlook. After reviewing how the market is changing, the Almond Board of California (ABC) concluded that past approaches alone will not be enough to fuel future growth. To meet long-term demand goals, the industry must reposition almonds for a new generation of Indian consumers.

    A High-Value Market with More Room to Grow

    India already has a strong almond consumption base. Almonds are widely recognized, associated with nutrition and consumed by more than half of households in some form.

    But that strength does not mean the market is saturated. Consumption varies sharply by region, with lower penetration in parts of the country, especially in the South. That gap points to opportunity. Future growth will come from reaching new consumers, new regions and new occasions.

    For growers, expanding total demand matters because broader consumption helps support long-term market stability and value.

    Identifying the Barriers to Continued Growth

    ABC research shows that almonds still hold a strong position in India, but perception challenges are beginning to limit growth. Among non-users and light users, three barriers stood out: low excitement, weak differentiation and limited understanding of why almonds deserve a place in everyday diets.

    Many consumers see almonds as dependable but somewhat dated. Some view them as interchangeable with other nuts, while others are unclear on how almonds fit into modern daily routines, especially in newer markets.

    That makes this a critical moment. A product that is widely known can still lose relevance with younger consumers if the industry does not actively refresh how it is positioned.

    A Rapidly Changing Consumer Landscape

    India’s consumer landscape is evolving. It is home to a young population, rising digital engagement and increasingly urban lifestyles that are reshaping how people discover and buy food.

    Younger consumers are influenced by health goals, personal ambition and digital culture. They are less responsive to traditional messages and more drawn to brands that feel modern, useful and relevant to everyday life.

    For almonds, that creates both risk and opportunity. Legacy messaging is losing strength, but a large, increasingly affluent population still offers major growth potential if almonds are positioned in a way that resonates now. — Story contributed by the Almond Board of California

  • Almond Board of California Releases Market Update

    The Almond Board of California released its March position report on April 10, showing that industry shipments totaled 258 million pounds. Blue Diamond Growers notes that this is an increase of 16.5% year over year, surpassing expectations. March exports were up 21% compared to last year at 2025.2 million pounds. Export shipments are surpassing last yers pace, leading by 3% at 1.38 billion pounds and domestic shipments for March came in at 1.9% ahead from last year.

    “While domestic year-to-date shipments remain behind at 391 million pounds, down 15.9%, the increase this month is worth celebrating after months of softer results. Total industry shipments through March stand at 1.78 billion pounds, down 1.9% versus last year,” Blue Diamond Growers wrote in its March Almond Market Update. “The California almond industry has shown resilience and strong performance despite logistical delays associated with the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. With concern around Australian crop quality due to late season rainfall, we may see additional opportunities for California almonds ahead.”

    The March shipment performance confirmed an effectively functioning market, with global demand continuing to absorb supply. Export markets remain the primary driver, supported by consistent movement into Europe, Southeast Asia and the Middle East, despite recent disruptions. This includes 39.2 million pounds shipped to India. China/Hong Kong, also saw a 123% increase to 4.1 million pounds following last year’s tariffs. Shipments to Vietnam were at 5.6 million pounds, an 8.5% increase.

    The Middle East remains difficult, with reduced activity in the United Arab Emirates, but Turkey has seen an increase of 30% and Pakistan has seen an increase of 170%, indicating that demand is being redistributed rather than eroded.

    “The conflict in Iran has been a concerning factor for the industry for over a month. The March report serves as proof that demand across the Middle East remains intact as the region took 21.9 million pounds for the month. The current geopolitical conditions have introduced disruptions and logistical challenges to traditional trade flows in the Persian Gulf,” the Blue Diamond update read. “Saudi Arabia is also expected to act as an alternative routing option to supply regional buyers. The region remains a key demand center with creative execution strategies, and the normalization of logistics is expected to support future activity.”

    The market in Europe remains steady, with year-to-date shipments tracking ahead of 2025 by 7%.