Since releasing our initial May 2026 estimate, Blue Diamond Growers has continued to monitor orchard conditions across all growing regions. The company’s observations continue to indicate a crop size in the range of 2.65 to 2.7 billion pounds. Their initial estimate had an upper range of 2.72 billion pounds, which they now believe peaks at 2.70 billion pounds because of growing downward pressure on crop potential, suggesting a slightly lower midpoint of 2.67 billion pounds. As it remains early in the season, the range indicates both downside risk and variability of the 2026 crop.
Over the past several weeks, in‑field managers have continued to survey orchards across the valley, noting additional observations related to nut progression, irrigation patterns, and early-season stress indicators. These insights, combined with updated grower feedback — they said — reinforce their assessment.
Key factors informing this follow‑up include:
- Continued orchard‑to‑orchard evaluations and comparisons to identify variations in quality and crop performance
- Updated monthly grower survey responses reflecting expectations across season-to-date performance
- Ongoing evaluation of economic, water, and weather pressures that may influence yield outcomes
Blue Diamond Growers will continue to monitor crop conditions and provide updates as conditions evolve. At this stage, indicators support a modestly lower estimate, with variability driven largely by input levels.
Crop Influences
The 2026 almond season to date reflects a mix of moderate weather conditions and ongoing operational and economic challenges for growers. While temperatures have remained warm without any critical heat wave conditions, several factors may still impact the crop before harvest.
Growers continue to face high production costs, resulting in measured resource management. Fertilizer and fuel costs, cash flow pressures and overall market prices have led many growers to reduce inputs. Growers have had ample water for irrigation, supporting orchards without major challenges. However, the cost of electricity required to pressurize water for irrigation remains a budgetary challenge.
Current Crop Development Observations
Orchard conditions are varying widely this season, shaped largely by differences in nutrition and input management.
Lower input orchards are showing lighter crop loads and weaker conditions, while a notable number of orchards with heavier crop loads are showing signs of weak spur development. This points to fertility concerns that could carry over into next year’s crop.
By contrast, many well-nourished orchards are showing overly vigorous growth, a potential indicator of poor crop loads. Growers and in-field teams have also reported thicker hulls and shells in several varieties, which could adversely affect turnout percentages and lead to reduced final crop weights beyond what may be apparent through pre-harvest observations.
Forward Outlook
Conditions will continue to evolve across the regions over the coming weeks, and the impact of crop stressors will become clearer. Ongoing monitoring will ensure that any significant changes are factored into future outlooks.
Further insights will be shared by Blue Diamond in subsequent Market Reports, with later reports refining the forecast once harvest is underway. — Story contributed by Blue Diamond Growers
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