The 2026 California Almond Forecast, published by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), estimates that the crop harvested in 2026 will come in at 2.7 billion pounds, down 1% from the previous year. Forecasted yield is 1,940 pounds per acre, unchanged from the previous season.
“According to the polled growers, the industry is expecting a modestly smaller crop in 2026 compared to last year. This is an early estimate, and we will see how the crop progresses over the coming months,” said Almond Board of California (ABC) President and CEO, Clarice Turner. “While this may signal tighter supply, California remains the world’s leading almond supplier, and ABC is focused on expanding global demand. Despite higher costs, regulatory pressures, and supply chain challenges, California almond farmers continue to deliver a reliable, high-quality crop.”
As of December 2025, the ABC Board of Directors voted to cease funding for the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Objective Measurement Report, making a change in California almond crop estimates going forward.
This Subjective Forecast will be the only report from NASS for the coming crop year. The estimate is based on opinions from a survey of around 500 growers conducted from April 21 to May 6. The sample of growers was selected at random and were grouped by size of operation to ensure all growers were proportionally represented. Respondents had the option to report their data by mail, phone or online.
This Subjective Forecast comes two weeks after Land IQ’s 2026 Standing Acreage Initial Estimate found that bearing almond acreage in California decreased by 15,227 acres from the previous year to 1,385,870 million bearing acres.
NASS conducts the annual Subjective Forecast to provide the California almond industry with the data needed to make informed business decisions.
— Story Contributed by the Almond Board of California
High early heat could result in a smaller nut set for almonds, though some larger hulls are being found. Meanwhile, orchards enjoyed a good bloom and growers may expect to harvest as early as July. Bountiful.ag Founder and CEO Megan Nunes spoke with Matthew Malcolm from California Ag Network about these findings in their first almond crop forecast of the 2026 season. Watch this video and learn more in Pacific Nut Producer Magazine.
Materials and manufacturing company Artefact and the Almond Board of California announced the launch of California almond shell composite materials for use in consumer and home products, as well as building and vehicle interiors. This partnership aims to support the reshoring of clean manufacturing with U.S. sourced regenerative materials. Demand has been fueled by new design possibilities for product brands and new choices for consumers with unique new products.
With California producing nearly 80% of the world’s almonds, the state’s almond industry represents one of the nation’s most reliable agricultural supply chains. Artefact’s technology transforms the shells leftover after almond processing into engineered materials. Historically, almond shells have been used for livestock bedding. This new technology offers the almond industry a path to higher value uses while providing manufacturers and consumer brands access alternatives to petroleum‑based plastics.
“California is a global leader in both agriculture and product innovation. Finding meaningful, environmentally friendly uses for our almond co-products is part of ensuring that nothing in the orchard goes to waste,” said Natalie Henderson, Director of Global Communications at the Almond Board of California. “This work builds on a historic portfolio of almond board research focused on creating value for our industry and the surrounding communities.”
Establishing the First Pilot Production Facility
Artefact is also working with growers and processors to locate a pilot production facility in California’s Central Valley. This facility is intended to reduce logistics costs, minimize environmental impact, and embed manufacturing directly within the rural agricultural region.
Artefact Cofounder and CEO, Ethan Escowitz, comments, “We envision a future where sustainability is not a product compromise, but a catalyst for creativity in product design. A future in which regenerative materials become the new standard that reestablishes manufacturing on U.S. soil with materials grown on U.S. soil. California is the global leader in almonds, both in production volume and processing technology, making California almond shells the ideal material to enable a major shift in this direction.” — Story Contributed by Almond Board of California
Blue Diamond Growers released its 2026 almond crop estimate recently at 2.69 billion pounds, falling between a total estimated range of 2.675 to 2.72 billion pounds. This estimate reflects early-season observations and data across California’s Central Valley, along with direct input from its nearly 3,000 grower-members. The report outlines the factors that inform the crop range and will guide the outlook as the season progresses.
With the changes made to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s almond crop estimates, Blue Diamond is providing a scenario-based range intended to help stakeholders plan for the season ahead. The cooperative’s estimate is based on field-level observations, historical performance data and structured feedback gathered across varieties and counties.
“Crop estimating is never a single-number exercise—conditions can vary dramatically by region, variety, and orchard management,” said Blue Diamond’d Chief Ag Officer Mel Machado. “By sharing a range and the inputs behind it, we aim to provide a practical, early framework that reflects what our team is seeing in the field and hearing directly from growers.”
“Our cooperative was built to bring stability and market access for California almond farming families,” said Jeff Hatfield, chief global supply officer of Blue Diamond Growers. “Providing a clear, data-informed outlook supports better planning and helps reduce surprises that can create unnecessary volatility for growers and customers alike.”
Blue Diamond noted that in-season conditions including heat events, pest pressure, water availability, and orchard investment decisions, can materially influence final receipts. The cooperative expects to continue sharing crop and market updates and will refine its outlook as additional information becomes available throughout the season. — Story provided by Blue Diamond Growers
When USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA‑NASS) releases the annual California Almond Subjective Forecast on May 12, growers may notice the report doesn’t look exactly like it has in the past. The difference is tied to a broader USDA‑NASS publication change — not to any change requested or directed by the Almond Board of California (ABC).
For decades, growers, handlers, and other stakeholders have used the Subjective Forecast as a consistent early-season reference point. Because many people know where to look for key figures and comparisons, even small shifts in layout can slow down that first read. While the report’s presentation may change, the industry’s need is the same: quickly locating the data points that support planning and market conversations.
Last year, USDA‑NASS has released a statement saying: “NASS will no longer generate publications tailored specifically to individual states or regions. There is no impact on state-level data as it will continue to be available in the national releases and through NASS’s public online database, Quick Stats. All NASS reports are available to the public at www.nass.usda.gov.”
For almonds, that means the Subjective Forecast may be packaged differently than the California-specific publication many are used to, however the survey methodology remains unchanged, and the California data will still exist within national releases and in Quick Stats.
To make the updated format easier to navigate, ABC will provide a brief cover letter when sharing the Subjective Forecast. The cover letter will act as a reader’s guide to point to where commonly referenced items appear and help industry members locate the information they are accustomed to seeing in the Subjective Forecast.
As an additional reminder, the Subjective Forecast will be the only yield-related report released by USDA this year. In December of 2025, ABC’s Board of Directors voted to cease funding for the USDA‑NASS Objective Estimate that has typically been released in early July.
ABC will share the Subjective Forecast as soon as it is released on May 12 and include the cover letter to help industry members orient quickly. If you have questions once the report is available, please contact ABC staff.
California Gubernatorial candidate Steve Hilton has been spending time in the Central Valley getting familiar the ag industry. He identified regulations in water access and labor and environmental restrictions as some of the key challenges he wishes to address. Hilton spoke with Matthew Malcolm from California Ag Network to discuss the key takeaways from his time meeting with growers and producers. Watch this quick video and read more in Pacific Nut Producer Magazine.
When growers think about foodservice demand, restaurants and packaged foods often come to mind. But another foodservice segment is quietly shaping ingredient use, consumer preferences and long‑term demand: College and University (C and U) foodservice.
C and U refers to on‑campus dining programs at colleges and universities. These programs feed students, faculty and staff every day across multiple venues and meals. Collectively, C and U foodservice represents an estimated $18 billion industry nationwide, with thousands of campuses and significant purchasing power. For almonds, it is a segment where scale and influence intersect.
College campuses serve food continuously. Breakfast, lunch, dinner and snacks are offered seven days a week. Some campuses prepare tens of thousands of meals daily across dining halls, cafés, food trucks and catering operations. Even small ingredient decisions, when multiplied across millions of meals each year, can add up quickly.
That scale is why the Almond Board of California engages with campus dining not only to encourage menu inclusion, but to help make almonds visible, desirable and repeatedly chosen by students. When almonds show up in everyday meals and beverages, they can influence preferences, normalize new uses beyond snacking and ultimately build long term demand.
“College dining today looks very different than it did a generation ago,” the Almond Board of California recently wrote. “Many universities now operate chef‑driven programs that emphasize scratch cooking, global flavors and ingredient transparency. On some campuses, dining experiences rival what is found in major cities.”
The Almond Board works with campus dining leaders, executive chefs and purchasers — especially at universities that manage their own dining programs — to make it easier to feature almonds in ways that are more appealing to students.
“C and U foodservice represents a long-term investment in almond demand because it combines large-scale meal volume with an unusually strong ability to shape consumer choices,” the Almond Board wrote. “Campus dining teams influence what students try repeatedly, and those experiences can carry forward into habits and purchases after graduation.”
For growers, this work may help keep almonds top-of-mind as these student-consumers navigate more choices and more competing ingredients.
— Story contributed by the Almond Board of California
Farmer John Chandler lamented the loss of methyl bromide for replanting an orchard or vineyard. Photo credit: Diana Gutierrez
Andreas Westphal, scientist at Kearney Agricultural Research and Extension Center in the San Joaquin Valley, organized a soil plant pathology conference that was held late last month. Growers from as far away as Virginia came to learn about the latest research findings.
Chandler Farms
The first day of the conference was a field tour to three sites and then Kearney itself. After meeting at Kearney, the participants rode on a tour bus to Chandler Farms in Selma. John Chandler, his brother Tom and their father, Bill operate a diversified farm that includes almonds, grapes and citrus.
Soil Fumigants
The Chandlers typically change out one field per year. John lamented the loss of methyl bromide for replanting an orchard or vineyard. He now uses Telone, which he finds “has less effect but still works.”
He always contracts out his Telone application because it requires special training. He has the contractor put tarps over it, beyond the usual seal — to prevent off-gassing — but he says, “It’s not worth it to get acres of plastic.” The tarps add about $1000/acre to the cost.
Westphal explained, though, that Telone is becoming more difficult to use because of a new restriction in the amount of Telone allowed plus a requirement that the fumigant be applied with lots of water. The new regulations say that the soil has to be wet to 2 feet depth. If the soil is bone dry, three inches of water must be added within 72 hours before applying the fumigant.
However, the excess water makes it hard to get a tractor through the field. Also, the fumigant does not move well through water, as it is made to move through air. Lastly, the Telone stays in wet soil longer before vaporizing off, which may make it toxic to plants.
Nematodes
Chandler said that his farm has nematodes — the microscopic roundworms that feed on plant roots. His soil has root-knot, lesion, ring and citrus types of nematodes.
When he can afford it, he fallows the land for a year or two instead of fumigating, but he says that fumigation gives the plants the best chance to get started. Once the crop is established, he notes, there are few tools for nematode adjustment.
In his Ruby Red grape concentrate vineyard, Chandler finds that ring nematodes like the wettest part, whereas other types of nematodes prefer the edges, where they feed on the fresh, new roots. Ring nematodes, he finds, like pure sand, but root knot nematodes thrive most in clay soil with good secondary structure.
The tour participants had many more questions for Chandler, but to stay on schedule, Westphal guided everyone back onto the tour bus.
Burchell Nursery
The second stop was Burchell Nursery in Fowler, where Mauricio De Almeida led the group around the almond, stone fruit, citrus, pomegranate, and retail table grape plants.
What Is Eating the Plant Roots?
Almeida said that, as in all greenhouses, the water, heat and humidity may induce root rot and fungus gnats. The fungus gnat larvae eat soft tissue of the plant roots. The adults do not feed on plants.
Another larva that needs to be managed is that of the European pepper moth. The caterpillars girdle the plant stem below the soil line.
The root rot and insect pests occur even though the potting media — made of peat, bark, wood fiber and sometimes Perlite — comes pasteurized. The nursery uses Nemasys® beneficial nematodes to manage the larval insect pests.
Citrus
Almeida explained that Burchell Nursery started growing citrus in 2010. They grew the citrus indoors to protect the trees from the Asian citrus psyllid. Westphal remarked that if you grow bareroot trees in the field, the soil must be certified nematode-free or else the trees themselves must get tested for nematodes. He also said that you cannot fumigate after pulling up the plants because the fumigant would kill the tree.
Among other species, Burchell Nursery sells commercial almond trees, including some cultivars they developed themselves. Photo credit: Tiffany Baiocchi
Almonds
In almonds, Bright’s Hybrid 5, Hansen and Viking rootstocks and Shasta scions resist root-knot nematode. Viking and Shasta also tolerate ring nematodes. Bright’s Hybrid also has low susceptibility to root lesion nematodes. In susceptible varieties, root-lesion nematodes create lesions that can lead to secondary infections like bacterial canker.
The visitors got to see the Cornerstone cultivar of Prunus rootstock, developed by Burchell Nursery to resist the root knot nematodes Meloidogyne javanica and M. incognita. Used as rootstock for almond and stone fruits, Cornerstone is also less sensitive to crown gall, caused by Agrobacterium tumefaciens.
Developed by Burchell Nursery, the Cornerstone cultivar of Prunus rootstock is resistant to the root knot nematodes Meloidogyne javanica and M. incognita and less sensitive than other rootstocks to crown gall, caused by Agrobacterium tumefaciens. Cornerstone can be used as rootstock for almond and stone fruits. Photo credit: Tiffany Baiocchi
Unfortunately, in both Kern and Merced counties (but not Fresno County where the tour took place), in 2018 a root-knot nematode from Florida, Meloidogyne floridensis, was found in almond trees on Hansen 536 and Bright’s Hybrid 5 rootstocks, where they caused growth decline of the trees. Now considered an A-rated (“highest concern”), quarantined pest in California, it has since been found in South Carolina and Georgia, after being endemic to Florida before 2018.
Levels of Plant Response to Pathogens
Plants can be divided into three groups of responses to nematodes and other pathogens: sensitive, tolerant and resistant. Tolerance allows for high nematode populations, which gives the nematodes more opportunity to have genetic mutations that enable them to overcome the plants’ resistance. Therefore, nematicides should be used in tolerant cultivars to limit the pest population.
Grapevines
In a vineyard section of the research fields, Westphal showed a poster of nematodes in the soil profile. Of the three types of nematodes represented, ring nematodes were found only in the top foot of soil.
By contrast, citrus and pin nematodes were found in each one-foot segment down to 4-5 feet, the deepest tested. The citrus nematode population peaked at 2-3’ depth and pin nematodes peaked at 3-4’ depth. The population of pin nematodes far exceeded those of ring and citrus nematodes at all depths. Fortunately, pin nematodes do not cause much economic damage in grapes.
Westphal also showed a poster of total sugar yield in 2025 of Pinot Gris cultivated on different rootstocks planted in 2023 in nematode-infested soil. The negative impact of nematodes was measured as sugar content of the fruit.
Of the seven commercial grapevine rootstocks tested, Freedom had the highest sugar content. An experimental rootstock had even higher sugar content. Serving as control groups, Chardonnay and Zinfandel rootstock had the lowest sugar content.
“On sensitive rootstock, even a few nematodes are bad,” Westphal remarked. About 85% of all new grapevine plantings are on Freedom rootstock. Freedom’s downside is susceptibility to quick decline, so the search continues for an even better rootstock.
In sugar beets, the exudate from plant roots helps nematodes find the roots. Westphal and colleagues are looking into the possibility of manipulating plants to exude different chemicals that do not attract nematodes.
Walnuts and Almonds
Walnuts are sensitive to some nematodes and resistant to others, but “every plant has its limits,” Westphal said. Walnut soil is treated pre-plant and at-plant at the planting site. Tank water is used to settle the tree in. Salibro® is added to the tank water to form a concentration that kills the nematodes but not the trees. Westphal cautioned growers to not overwater walnuts.
Among other things, Westphal is testing juice from walnut hulls to see if they inhibit nematodes. He noted that ASD (anaerobic soil disinfestation), created by applying nine tons of rice bran per acre, inhibited nematodes somewhat. However, it would not be worth the $6,000/acre price tag for growers.
Westphal is testing whether juice from walnut hulls can inhibit nematodes in almond orchards.
Highly resistant rootstocks can grow without fumigation, with less toxic, affordable nematicides applied. As with citrus, nursery trees must be grown in nematode-free soil, or the trees must be certified before leaving the premises.
Westphal showed the tour participants an almond rootstock test orchard, in which nematode resistance is compared among various commercial and experimental rootstocks. Only the most successful experimental rootstocks make it to the next round of trials, along with the commercial ones for comparison.
Westphal then concluded the field tour. The conference continued in an indoor classroom on the following two days.
Initial 2026 bearing acreage is estimated at 1,385,870 acres, compared to the 2025 Land IQ Standing Acreage Final Estimate of 1,401,097 million bearing acres. This reflects a decrease of 15,227 bearing acres over the past year.
Land IQ’s recent Initial Estimate does not include total almond acreage. It looked at bearing acreage, specifically orchards planted before 2024 that have matured enough to produce a crop for the coming 2026 harvest. Land IQ’s final report on total acreage and non-bearing acres — including newer plantings not mature enough to produce almonds for commercial consumption — will come out in November.
In addition, Land IQ estimated 47,588 acres of orchard removals, adding to the nearly 49,197 acres removed in the 2024-25 crop year.
The drop in bearing acres is due to orchard removals and a slowdown in new plantings. This comes on the heels of Land IQ’s report in 2025 that found that California’s total almond acreage had dropped four years in a row to 1.52 million acres.
“While we’re seeing stabilization in bearing acreage, global demand remains strong and is the foundation of our industry,” said ABC President and CEO Clarice Turner. “Continued, strategic investment in market development is essential to supporting long-term growth and to position California almonds for the future.”
The Land IQ report is a snapshot of the coming 2026 harvest but does not offer an estimate on the actual almond production for the 2026-27 crop year. A production estimate will be released on May 12 with USDA-NASS’ Subjective Estimate. As of December 2025, the Almond Board of California Board of Directors voted to cease funding for the July USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) Objective Measurement Report, making a change in California almond crop estimates going forward.
Land IQ’s final acreage estimate in November of 2026 will cover total acres, bearing acreage, non-bearing acreage and potentially abandoned acres and removals from Sept. 1, 2025 to Aug. 31, 2026. Please note that the almond crop year runs Aug. 1-July 31, so this estimate includes the harvest for the 2026-27 crop year.
Land IQ’s Initial Estimate and its Final Acreage Estimate in November are commissioned by the Almond Board of California to provide statistical transparency and a robust picture of California almonds to industry stakeholders around the world. In 2018, ABC first commissioned Land IQ, a Sacramento-based agricultural and environmental scientific research and consulting firm, to develop a comprehensive, living map of California almonds, with the first report issued in 2019. The map is the result of more than a decade of research
— Story Contributed by the Almond Board of California
With spring weather arriving earlier, almond growers in California can expect an earlier influx of pests in their orchards — and to get started sooner on preventing them from harming their nut crops. According to UCCE Sacramento Valley Integrated Pest Management Supervisor Sudan Gyawaly, now is the time to watch out for things like navel orangeworm (NOW), peach twig borers, leaf-footed bugs and spider mites.
Navel Orangeworm (NOW)
Navel orangeworms (Amyelois transitella) are the most prominent pests in almond orchards. These moths lay their eggs on the shells after hull split, and the larvae burrow inside the shell, eating the nuts and sheltering inside. Signs of a NOW infestation in an orchard include:
·Small, flat, oval-shaped eggs outside of almond hulls
·Pinhole-sized holes in almond hulls
·Hulls that are oily in appearance
·Fungal infections of nuts
·Extensive webbing inside the hulls
·Partially eaten nuts
·Larvae that are white to pink in color, with crescent marks behind the head
Navel orangeworm damage to an almond. Photo by Matthew Malcolm
To manage NOW in your orchards, be sure to continuously monitor male flight activity by using pheromone traps. Also continue to monitor NOW egg traps to establish a spring biofix (the first spring flight, which acts as the starting date for calculating growing degree days), to help you predict the timing of their later flights. The first flight usually occurs from late March through April, but earlier times are possible, depending on the weather.
According to UC IPM, prevention is key to avoiding infestation. This includes removing all mummy nuts by the start of February. To eliminate existing NOW populations:
·Establish a biofix
·Hang pheromone dispensers in the treesto disrupt mating
·Assess trap activity and begin spraying at hull split.Apply pesticides at night and early morning for optimal results
·Harvest and clean up as early as possible
·Remove mummy nuts by March 15 of the next year.Mow or disk mummies on the ground.
Peach Twig Borer
While less of a concern in mature orchards, peach twig borer — also a moth — can still be a menace for almond growers in younger fields by causing primary scaffold damage. Begin monitoring pheromone traps in April to establish a biofix and decide if a spray is necessary in May.Consult with your pest control adviser if you are unsure.
Leaf-Footed Bugs
Stink bugs and leaf-footed bugs are especially troublesome after a warm winter. Leaf-footed bugs can be trickier to spot.UC IPM lists the tell-tale signs of an infestation in your orchard as:
·Gummy nuts — nuts withexudates on the outside of the hull —a signature warning
·Nuts that have dropped prematurely
·Black spots on kernels and wrinkled, misshapen nutmeat from adult feeding
·Withered and aborted shells from bugs feeding on premature nuts
Leaf-footed bug
Stink bugs cause similar damage, but this is usually around May or June. Leaf-footed bug management can vary from orchard to orchard, depending on history and severity. Gyawaly advises basing spray decisions on this history plus on damage risk associated with seasonal conditions. Consult with your pest control adviser if you are unsure.
Spider Mites
Typically found in the lower parts of the canopy, spider mites may also come out earlier and in greater numbers with warmer weather. Their presence should be monitored once every two weeks.For this pest, beneficial arthropods that prey on spider mites may be one of your orchard’s best friends. These species include:
·Western predatory mites
·Spider mite destroyers
·Sixspotted thrips
·Pirate bugs
By monitoring and addressing mite and insect pests in the spring, the pest populations can be kept under control to ensure a large, high-quality almond harvest.
