California Ag Network

Tag: USDA NASS

  • 2026 USDA-NASS Subjective Forecast Format Changes

    When USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA‑NASS) releases the annual California Almond Subjective Forecast on May 12, growers may notice the report doesn’t look exactly like it has in the past. The difference is tied to a broader USDA‑NASS publication change — not to any change requested or directed by the Almond Board of California (ABC).

    For decades, growers, handlers, and other stakeholders have used the Subjective Forecast as a consistent early-season reference point. Because many people know where to look for key figures and comparisons, even small shifts in layout can slow down that first read. While the report’s presentation may change, the industry’s need is the same: quickly locating the data points that support planning and market conversations.

    Last year, USDA‑NASS has released a statement saying: “NASS will no longer generate publications tailored specifically to individual states or regions. There is no impact on state-level data as it will continue to be available in the national releases and through NASS’s public online database, Quick Stats. All NASS reports are available to the public at www.nass.usda.gov.”

    For almonds, that means the Subjective Forecast may be packaged differently than the California-specific publication many are used to, however the survey methodology remains unchanged, and the California data will still exist within national releases and in Quick Stats.

    To make the updated format easier to navigate, ABC will provide a brief cover letter when sharing the Subjective Forecast. The cover letter will act as a reader’s guide to point to where commonly referenced items appear and help industry members locate the information they are accustomed to seeing in the Subjective Forecast.

    As an additional reminder, the Subjective Forecast will be the only yield-related report released by USDA this year. In December of 2025, ABC’s Board of Directors voted to cease funding for the USDA‑NASS Objective Estimate that has typically been released in early July.

    ABC will share the Subjective Forecast as soon as it is released on May 12 and include the cover letter to help industry members orient quickly. If you have questions once the report is available, please contact ABC staff.

    — Story contributed by Almond Board of California

  • Bearing Almond Acreage Drops for First Time in Decades

    California’s bearing almond acreage decreased over the past year — the first drop in 30 years — according to Land IQ’s 2026 Standing Acreage Initial Estimate as bearing acreage stabilizes.

    Initial 2026 bearing acreage is estimated at 1,385,870 acres, compared to the 2025 Land IQ Standing Acreage Final Estimate of 1,401,097 million bearing acres. This reflects a decrease of 15,227 bearing acres over the past year.

    Land IQ’s recent Initial Estimate does not include total almond acreage. It looked at bearing acreage, specifically orchards planted before 2024 that have matured enough to produce a crop for the coming 2026 harvest. Land IQ’s final report on total acreage and non-bearing acres — including newer plantings not mature enough to produce almonds for commercial consumption — will come out in November.

    In addition, Land IQ estimated 47,588 acres of orchard removals, adding to the nearly 49,197 acres removed in the 2024-25 crop year.

    The drop in bearing acres is due to orchard removals and a slowdown in new plantings. This comes on the heels of Land IQ’s report in 2025 that found that California’s total almond acreage had dropped four years in a row to 1.52 million acres.

    “While we’re seeing stabilization in bearing acreage, global demand remains strong and is the foundation of our industry,” said ABC President and CEO Clarice Turner. “Continued, strategic investment in market development is essential to supporting long-term growth and to position California almonds for the future.”

    The Land IQ report is a snapshot of the coming 2026 harvest but does not offer an estimate on the actual almond production for the 2026-27 crop year. A production estimate will be released on May 12 with USDA-NASS’ Subjective Estimate. As of December 2025, the Almond Board of California Board of Directors voted to cease funding for the July USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) Objective Measurement Report, making a change in California almond crop estimates going forward.

    Land IQ’s final acreage estimate in November of 2026 will cover total acres, bearing acreage, non-bearing acreage and potentially abandoned acres and removals from Sept. 1, 2025 to Aug. 31, 2026. Please note that the almond crop year runs Aug. 1-July 31, so this estimate includes the harvest for the 2026-27 crop year.

    Land IQ’s Initial Estimate and its Final Acreage Estimate in November are commissioned by the Almond Board of California to provide statistical transparency and a robust picture of California almonds to industry stakeholders around the world. In 2018, ABC first commissioned Land IQ, a Sacramento-based agricultural and environmental scientific research and consulting firm, to develop a comprehensive, living map of California almonds, with the first report issued in 2019. The map is the result of more than a decade of research

    — Story Contributed by the Almond Board of California

  • Tomato Processors Expect to Contract 9.8 Million Tons in 2026

    As of January, California’s tomato processors reported they have, or will have, contracts for 9.8 million tons in 2026, which is a decrease of 11% compared to 11.0 million contracted tons forecast in the August 2025 California Processing Tomato Report. Processors estimate that the contracted production for 2026 will come from 185,000 acres, generating an average yield of 53 tons per acre. This year’s contracted planted acreage forecast is 10% below the 2025 estimate of 205,000 planted acres under contract in the August forecast.

    The USDA-NASS Pacific Regional Office surveyed California’s tomato processors for their intended contract acreage and tonnage for the upcoming 2026 season. The data reported by processors was either tonnage with derived acreage, or acreage with derived tonnage.

    This early processing tomato estimate is funded by the California League of Food Producers.

  • 2025 California Walnut Industry Crop Estimate Up from Last Year

    The USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released the official 2025 California Walnut Industry Objective Measurement Report on Wednesday, September 4, 2025. The 2025 California walnut production is forecasted at 710,000 tons (644,101 MT), up 18% from 2024’s production of 603,000 tons (547,032 MT). The forecast is based on 365,000 bearing acres, down 1% from 2024’s estimated bearing acreage of 370,000 acres.

    The September 4th announcement from NASS provides the industry with an objective crop volume estimate. Using scientific methodologies, USDA field staff counted, measured, weighed, and evaluated thousands of walnuts from major growing regions in July and August for use in a statistical acreage model to establish the annual walnut crop estimate.

    In addition to the updated crop estimate, the California walnut industry is nearing the close-out of the 2024 crop year. Early evaluations are encouraging, suggesting it will be one of the lowest unsold carry-in inventory volumes the industry has seen in years and much of this inventory will be sold in September and October before the new harvest is ready to ship.

    “The estimate of 710,000 tons is in-line with what the industry was projecting,” said Robert Verloop, Executive Director and CEO of the California Walnut Board and Commission. “Combined with virtually being sold out of the 2024 crop, the industry is well positioned to start shipping new harvest California walnuts immediately, providing seller and buyer confidence and stable markets.”

    “Moreover, walnut quality is exceptional, the result of careful farming, ideal spring and summer conditions and replenished soil moisture, with a consistent nut set. Growers have been opening walnuts and have commented that the walnuts kernels are completely filling the shells and have exceptionally light color for this time of the year. This crop may exceed the excellent quality we have seen in the last two years. I think international markets will be very pleased.”

    Harvest begins in September with early varieties and may extend into early November, harvesting the crop at its peak quality and full development.

    The California walnut industry foresees a promising season ahead. The California Walnut Board and Commission continue its focus to build long-term demand and increase sales for California walnuts by implementing programs that drive consumers to eat more walnuts, more often, and in more ways. With a strong commitment to delivering excellent quality, the highest food safety standards, consumer appeal and a reliable supply, California walnuts are well-positioned to meet the evolving needs of the global market — today and into the future.

    About the California Walnut Board and Commission

    The California Walnut Board (CWB) and California Walnut Commission (CWC) represent more than 3,700 California walnut growers and approximately 70 handlers, grown in multi-generational farmers’ family orchards. California walnuts, known for their excellent nutritional value and quality, are shipped around the world all year long, with more than 99% of the walnuts grown in the United States being from California. The CWB, established in 1948, promotes usage of walnuts in the United States through publicity and educational programs. The CWB also provides funding for walnut production, food safety and post-harvest research. The CWC, established in 1987, is involved in health research with consuming walnuts as well as domestic and export market development activities.

    To explore recipes and learn more about California walnut growers, industry information and health research, visit walnuts.org.

  • Revised Forecast Reveals Larger California Almond Crop

    The 2025 California Almond Objective Measurement Report published Thursday by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA-NASS) estimates that the crop harvested in 2025 will come in at 3.0 billion meat pounds.

    The Objective Estimate is up 7 percent from USDA-NASS’s Subjective Forecast in May and 10 percent higher than last year’s crop of 2.73 billion meat pounds.

    “The Objective Measurement reflects the hard work by California almond growers during uncertain times,” said Clarice Turner, president and CEO of the Almond Board of California. “While shipping has remained consistently strong, we know uncertainty remains surrounding future trade policies. We continue to engage with trade partners and stakeholders to encourage constructive solutions that support fair and stable trade so California almonds can continue to be enjoyed by consumers around the world.”

    The 2024 harvest yielded 2.73 billion pounds, 2.5% below the 2024 Objective Report estimate, reflecting the difficulty of precisely forecasting crop size given the current fluctuations in weather and economic factors.

    The report shared the 2025 almond crop experienced variable weather during bloom, which began in early February and peaked in the middle of the month. Storms brought rain, wind and hail, which hindered bee hours and blossom growth. Conditions improved in early March with warm temperatures accelerating the crop’s progress through the end of bloom. Mild temperatures and timely rain in spring supported nut growth and continued through early summer, lessening heat stress in orchards. Lower than normal pest and disease pressure have been reported. Harvest is expected to begin on time.

    USDA-NASS’ forecasted yield is 2,160 pounds per acre, up from 1,980 in 2024. The forecast for the average nut set per tree is 4,364, an increase of 7 percent compared to 2024. The Nonpareil average nut set of 4,526 is 9 percent higher than last year. The average kernel weight for all varieties sampled was 1.60 grams, down 0.6 percent from the 2024 average weight. The Nonpareil average kernel weight was 1.60 grams, down 2 percent from the 2024 average weight.

    The 2025 Objective Report is based on actual almond counts using a statistically rigorous methodology. The survey was conducted from May 24 to June 28 and 1,892 trees were sampled in 946 orchards. USDA-NASS conducts the annual Objective Report, Subjective Forecast and Nursery Survey to provide the California almond industry with the data needed to make informed business decisions.

  • Almond Harvest 2024 Predicted at 2.8 Billion Pounds, Carryout Expected to Drop Significantly

    The 2024 California Almond Objective Measurement Report published July 10th by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA-NASS) estimates that the crop harvested in 2024 will come in at 2.80 billion meat pounds.

    The estimate is down 7 percent from USDA-NASS’s Subjective Forecast in May. It follows a generally solid bloom as well as a year in which growers faced a range of economic challenges. It also comes when the carryout is projected to drop to levels not seen in years as almond shipments set a record of 10 months straight of at least 212 million pounds shipped.

    “The Objective Measurement is in line with what the industry expected and a drop from the Subjective Estimate. It reflects both a good bloom and hard work by California almond growers during trying times,” said Clarice Turner, president and CEO of the Almond Board of California. “For perspective, demand has been strong, consistent and continues to grow, which has reduced the carryout to what may be the smallest in years. California almonds shipped at least 212 million pounds each of the first 10 months of this crop year and averaged 230 million pounds a month. Never before has the industry shipped even 200 million pounds 10 months in a row in the same crop year.”

    Turner said the Almond Board expects the almond supply to be similar to what was available in the past 2023-24 crop year.

    “The actual supply of California almonds available for the market is the combination of crop size and carryout from the previous year,” she said, “We expect only minor changes, if any, to the supply for market this next crop year because the forecasted increase in crop size will mostly be offset by the smaller carryout. Clearly, global demand is strong and consistent. We will continue to work hard to meet growing demand.”

    The 2023 harvest yielded 2.47 billion pounds, 5% below the 2023 Objective Report estimate, reflecting the difficulty of precisely forecasting crop size given the current fluctuations in weather and economic factors.

    USDA-NASS said the 2024 harvest is expected to be on schedule. “The 2024 almond crop experienced mostly favorable weather during the bloom period,” the report said. “Bee hours were reported to be significantly higher than last year. Wet and warm weather in April increased pest and disease pressure, but dry conditions and mild temperatures in May helped the developing crop. Multiple heat waves across the state during June and July required growers to increase irrigation on their orchards.”

    USDA-NASS’ forecasted yield is 2030 pounds per acre, up from 1,790 in 2023. The forecast for the average nut set per tree is 4,072 up from 3,953 in 2023, while the average kernel weight for all varieties sampled was 1.61 grams, down from the 1.67 grams in 2023. The Nonpareil average nut set of 4,137 is up from 4,004 last year, and the average Nonpareil kernel weight was 1.64, down from 1.69 grams last year.

    The 2024 Objective Report is based on actual almond counts using a statistically rigorous methodology. The survey was conducted from May 25 to June 28 and 1,904 trees were sampled in 952 orchards, the most ever, USDA NASS said. It was 40 more orchards than in 2023. USDA-NASS conducts the annual Objective Report, Subjective Forecast and Nursery Survey to provide the California almond industry with the data needed to make informed business decisions.

  • Initial Almond Crop Forecast Up 21 Percent from Last Year

    The 2024 California Almond Forecast published Friday by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA-NASS) estimates that the crop harvested in 2024 will come in at 3 billion pounds, 21 percent above last year’s 2.47 billion pounds.

    Forecasted yield is 2,170 pounds per acre, up 380 pounds from the 2023 harvest.

    “This larger crop estimate is what the industry expected after a productive bloom this spring, but it is also a testament to the hard work done by almond farmers throughout California during difficult times,” said Clarice Turner, president and CEO of the Almond Board of California. “Demand for California almonds around the globe continues to grow and our almond farmers constantly deliver on producing high quality California almonds to meet that demand.”

    The report said, “The 2024 almond crop experienced fluctuating, but mostly favorable weather for the first half of the growing season. The bloom began the second week in February for the early varieties. There were a handful of storms that brought rain, wind, and hail to some areas, but overall mild temperatures and excellent weather from the end of February into early March helped boost pollination. Bee hours were reported to be significantly higher than last year … There was minimal to no threat of frost damage and water allocation is not an issue for the second year in a row.

    This Subjective Forecast is the first of two production reports from USDA-NASS for the coming crop year. It is an estimate based on opinions from a survey conducted from April 19 to May 5 of 500 randomly selected California almond growers. The sample of growers, which changes every year, is spread across regions and different sized operations, and they had the option to report their data by mail, online or phone.

    On July 10, USDA-NASS will release its second production estimate, the 2024 California Almond Objective Report, which will be based on actual almond counts in approximately 1,000 orchards using a more statistically rigorous methodology to determine yield. If the 3.0 billion pounds holds, it would be the second largest crop on record.

    This Subjective Forecast comes two weeks after Land IQ’s 2024 Standing Acreage Initial Estimate found that bearing almond acreage in California has decreased about 600 acres from the previous year to 1.373 million acres.

    USDA-NASS conducts the annual Subjective Forecast and Objective Report to provide the California almond industry with the data needed to make informed business decisions. These reports are the official industry crop estimates.

  • California Bearing Almond Acreage Drops for the First Time in Decades

    California’s bearing almond acreage decreased slightly over the past year, according to a new report from Land IQ to the Almond Board of California (ABC). It is the first time since at least 1995 that the total of bearing acres has not grown.

    Land IQ’s 2024 Standing Acreage Initial Estimate issued recently looked at bearing acreage – orchards planted before 2022 and that have matured enough to produce a crop for the coming 2024 harvest. It estimated that bearing almond orchards at harvest will cover 1.373 million acres across California, a decrease of about 600 acres.

    In addition, Land IQ estimates that approximately 71,000 acres of orchards will be removed by the end of the crop year, adding to the 83,000 acres removed in the 2023-24 crop year, according to Land IQ’s estimate issued in November last year.

    While the bearing acreage drop may be small – far less than 1 percent – it marks the first time since at least 1995 that bearing acreage has not increased, according to numbers issued previously by the USDA-National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA-NASS), and with the orchard removals continues a trend over recent years of decreasing almond acreage in California.

    “The decrease in bearing acreage and continued orchard removals, coupled with drops in overall acreage and non-bearing acreage the last two years, signal a probable trend toward lower overall California almond acreage,” said Clarice Turner, ABC president and CEO. “We continue to see strong shipments this year, so we know global demand for California almonds continues to grow. There is no doubt that almonds will continue to have a very significant role in California and global agriculture and food industries for the foreseeable future.”

    The Land IQ report is a snapshot of the coming 2024 harvest but does not offer an estimate on the actual almond yield this 2024-25 crop year. A fuller picture of crop size will come with USDA-NASS’ Objective Report in July.

    Land IQ’s estimate covers bearing acreage and removals from Sept. 1, 2023 to Aug. 31, 2024. Note that the almond crop year runs Aug. 1-July 31, so this estimate looks at the harvest for the 2024-25 crop year.

    Land IQ will issue a final acreage report on the 2024-25 crop year in November that will include total acreage along with bearing and non-bearing acres. Their report in November 2023 found that California’s total almond acreage had dropped two years in a row to 1.56 million acres.

    Land IQ’s Initial Estimate and its Final Acreage Estimate in November are commissioned by ABC to provide statistical transparency and a robust picture of California almonds to industry stakeholders around the world. In 2018, ABC first commissioned Land IQ, a Sacramento-based agricultural and environmental scientific research and consulting firm, to develop a comprehensive, living map of California almonds, with the first report issues in 2019. The map is the result of more than a decade of research.

    About the Almond Board of California

    California almonds make life better by what we grow and how we grow. The Almond Board of California promotes natural, wholesome and quality almonds through leadership in strategic market development, innovative research, and accelerated adoption of industry best practices on behalf of the more than 7,600 almond farmers and processors in California, most of whom are multi-generational family operations. ABC is a non-profit organization that administers a grower-enacted Federal Marketing Order under the supervision of the USDA. It was established in 1950 and is based in Modesto, CA. For more information on the Almond Board or California almonds, visit Almonds.com.

  • USDA Final Forecast Projects Slightly Larger 2023 Almond Crop

    The 2023 California Almond Objective Measurement Report published Wednesday by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA-NASS) estimates that the crop harvested in 2023 will come in at 2.6 billion meat pounds, 1% percent above last year’s 2.57 billion pounds.

    The estimate is up 4 percent from USDA-NASS’s Subjective Forecast in May and comes after one of the wettest winters on record, limited bee flights because of rain and wind, and a cool spring. USDA’s Forecasted yield is 1,880 pounds per acre, down 20 pounds from 2022 and the lowest since 2009.

    The slight increase comes partly because of larger nut size and despite difficult conditions, USDA-NASS said. “Record level rainfall and unprecedented stormy conditions hindered bee pollination activity in orchards across the state. Cooler than normal temperatures continued through early summer and delayed the maturity of the crop,” the report said.

    “Almond farmers have faced a series of challenges in recent years, and this wet, cool winter and spring created different obstacles after three years of drought. Yet the forecast for a larger crop shows the resiliency of California almond orchards,” said Richard Waycott, president and CEO of the Almond Board of California (ABC). “Almond farmers have worked hard while dealing with higher production and financing costs and a bloom with highly compromised bee flight hours. They are very thankful, however, for the abundant rain and snow which vastly improved the water situation, at least for now, and for shipping logistics that continue to improve. The perseverance of California’s almond farmers is admirable as is their commitment to meet future growth in global demand with high quality California almonds.”

    The forecast for the average nut set per tree is 3,953, 3 percent down from 2022. The Nonpareil average nut set of 4,004 is 1 percent more than last year. The average kernel weight for all varieties sampled was 1.67 grams, up 14% percent from the 2022 average weight. The Nonpareil average kernel weight was 1.69 grams, up 9 percent over from last year.

    The 2023 Objective Report is based on actual almond counts using a statistically rigorous methodology. The survey was conducted from May 26 to July 3 and 1,824 trees were sampled in 912 orchards, 32 more orchards than in 2022. USDA-NASS conducts the annual Subjective Forecast, Objective Report and Acreage Report to provide the California almond industry with the data needed to make informed business decisions. — By the Almond Board of California

  • USDA Forecasts Lowest CA Almond Crop Per Acre Since 2005

    The 2023 California Almond Subjective Forecast published Friday by the U. S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA-NASS) estimates that the crop harvested in 2023 will come in at 2.50 billion pounds, 3 percent below last year’s 2.57 billion pounds.

    Richard Waycott, President & CEO, Almond Board of California

    Forecasted yield is 1,810 pounds per acre, down 90 pounds from 2022 and the lowest since 2005. “A lower crop estimate was not unexpected considering all that growers dealt with last year and during this year’s bloom,” said Richard Waycott, president and CEO of the Almond Board of California (ABC). “The cold, wet weather kept bees in their hives and reduced the hours they could pollinate orchards. In the past three years, growers have faced high costs, shipping issues, drought and more. But the water picture is better, at least for this year, shipping continues at record levels and global demand continues to grow. California’s almond farmers are prepared to meet that global demand.”

    The report said: “Record rainfall and unprecedented stormy conditions impacted pollination. Limited bee flight hours were reported in all growing regions. There were reports of downed trees due to high winds and oversaturated soil. Yields are expected to be the lowest in years, with variation observed across varieties and orchard locations. Colder than normal temperatures continued through March and April, resulting in a delayed crop.”

    The Subjective Forecast is the first of two production reports from USDA-NASS for the coming crop year. It is an estimate based on opinions from a survey conducted from April 19 to May 6 of 500 randomly selected California almond growers. The sample of growers, which changes every year, is spread across regions and different sized operations, and they had the option to report their data by mail, online or phone.

    On July 7, USDA-NASS will release its second production estimate, the 2023 California Almond Objective Report, which is based on actual almond counts in nearly 1,000 orchards using a more statistically rigorous methodology to determine yield.

    This Subjective Forecast comes two weeks after USDA-NASS released the 2022 California Almond Acreage Report which found total almond acreage had dropped in 2022 to 1.63 million, 1.2 percent down from 1.65 million in 2021. It also estimated 1.38 million bearing acres in 2023, up from 2022’s estimate of 1.35 million bearing acres.

    USDA-NASS conducts the annual Subjective Forecast, Objective Report and Acreage Report to provide the California almond industry with the data needed to make informed business decisions. These reports are the official industry crop estimates.