California Ag Network

Tag: National Agricultural Statistics Service

  • USDA Releases 2026 Almond Harvest Forecast

    The 2026 California Almond Forecast, published by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), estimates that the crop harvested in 2026 will come in at 2.7 billion pounds, down 1% from the previous year. Forecasted yield is 1,940 pounds per acre, unchanged from the previous season.

    “According to the polled growers, the industry is expecting a modestly smaller crop in 2026 compared to last year. This is an early estimate, and we will see how the crop progresses over the coming months,” said Almond Board of California (ABC) President and CEO, Clarice Turner. “While this may signal tighter supply, California remains the world’s leading almond supplier, and ABC is focused on expanding global demand. Despite higher costs, regulatory pressures, and supply chain challenges, California almond farmers continue to deliver a reliable, high-quality crop.”

    As of December 2025, the ABC Board of Directors voted to cease funding for the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Objective Measurement Report, making a change in California almond crop estimates going forward.

    This Subjective Forecast will be the only report from NASS for the coming crop year. The estimate is based on opinions from a survey of around 500 growers conducted from April 21 to May 6. The sample of growers was selected at random and were grouped by size of operation to ensure all growers were proportionally represented. Respondents had the option to report their data by mail, phone or online.

    This Subjective Forecast comes two weeks after Land IQ’s 2026 Standing Acreage Initial Estimate found that bearing almond acreage in California decreased by 15,227 acres from the previous year to 1,385,870 million bearing acres.

    NASS conducts the annual Subjective Forecast to provide the California almond industry with the data needed to make informed business decisions.

    — Story Contributed by the Almond Board of California

  • USDA Still Accepting 2022 Census of Ag forms from California producers

    The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) is reminding California farmers and ranchers that the window is closing on the opportunity to participate in the 2022 Census of Agriculture. NASS is encouraging U.S. producers who have not returned their completed ag census questionnaires to do so as soon as possible to avoid additional mail, phone, email, text, and in- person follow-up, which is currently underway.

    “Thank you to everyone that has responded.” said NASS Pacific Regional Director Gary Keough. “To those that haven’t responded, there is still time to make your voice heard. The Census data shows the importance of agriculture at the local, county, state, and national levels and is an indispensable tool for developing and administering programs that impact the agricultural community.”

    NASS is reminding producers that if they produced and sold $1,000 or more of agricultural product in 2022, or normally would have produced and sold that much, they meet USDA’s definition of a farm. However, federal law requires everyone who received the 2022 Census of Agriculture questionnaire complete and return it, even if they do not currently meet this definition. Producers can respond online at agcounts.usda.gov or by mail.

    “If you received the ag census but do not fit the definition of a farm, are no longer farming, never farmed, or are a landowner who leases your land to a producer, please write your status on the form and mail it back,” said Keough.

    The Census of Agriculture remains the only comprehensive and impartial source of agriculture data for every state and county in the nation. Census data are used by policymakers, trade associations, researchers, agribusinesses, educators, and many others. The information helps inform decisions on farm policy, rural development, the development of farm technologies, and more. It also aids in the creation and funding of loans and insurance programs and other forms of assistance.

    The ag census differs from other NASS surveys. Beyond being conducted just once every five years, it provides important demographic information and data on certain commodities, such as horses, bison, and Christmas trees, that would not otherwise be available. The Census of Agriculture collects information on nearly every aspect of American agriculture for a complete picture of the health of the industry. Changes to the 2022 questionnaire include new questions about the use of precision agriculture, hemp production, hair sheep and updates to internet access questions.

    Federal law under Title 7 USC 2204(g) Public Law 105-113 requires that NASS keep all submissions confidential, use the information for statistical purposes only, and publish aggregate data to prevent disclosing the identity of any individual producer or farm operation.

    NASS will release the results of the ag census in early 2024. To learn more about the Census of Agriculture, visit nass.usda.gov/AgCensus. On the website, producers and other data users can access frequently asked questions, past ag census data, special study information, and more. For highlights of these and the latest information, follow USDA NASS on Twitter at @usda_nass.

  • California Ag Producers Near Feb. 6 Deadline for 2022 Ag Census

    The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) reminds California farmers and ranchers that the deadline to respond to the 2022 Census of Agriculture is next week, Feb. 6. Producers can respond online at agcounts.usda.gov or by mail.

    Last month, NASS mailed the Census of Agriculture questionnaires to every known ag producer in California, the U.S., and Puerto Rico. Conducted just once every five years, the ag census provides a complete account of the nation’s farms and ranches and the people who operate them. Responding to the Census of Agriculture is required by federal law under Title 7 USC 2204(g) Public Law 105-113. The same law requires NASS to keep all individual operations’ informationconfidential, use the data for statistical purposes only, and publish the data in aggregate form to prevent disclosing the identity of any individual producer or farm operation.

    “The Census of Agriculture is vital to agriculture at the local, county, state, and National level. It provides the only source of uniform, comprehensive, and impartial agriculture data,” says Gary Keough, Director of the NASS Pacific Regional Field Office.

    The Census of Agriculture remains the nation’s only comprehensive and impartial agriculture data for every state, county, and U.S. territory. Farm operations of all sizes, urban and rural, which produced and sold, or normally would have sold, $1,000 or more of agricultural products in 2022, are included in the ag census.

    Producers who have submitted their completed ag censuses may disregard any additional ag census letters and forms. Whether producers responded online or by mail, they can verify their reports were received by going to agcounts.usda.gov, entering their survey codes, and checking the submitted date under the status column of the My Surveys tab. The status update is not always immediate. The update can take a few minutes up to several days, especially if the questionnaire was returned by mail.

    NASS will release the results of the ag census in 2024. Visit nass.usda.gov/agcensus, for more information.

  • USDA’s Cost of Pollination Survey Going Out to California Growers

    On Nov. 1, USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) will mail the 2022 Cost of Pollination Survey to over 2,700 CA crop producers. The survey will be sent to nearly 16,000 producers nationwide.

    “Honey bees are important pollinators of crops ranging from almonds to zucchinis,” said Gary R. Keough, director of the NASS Pacific Regional Office. “To help accurately depict the health of the pollination industry in the United States, NASS will ask crop producers about their use of honey bees, the fees they paid for honey bee pollination, and any other expenses related to pollinating their crops.”

    Survey recipients are asked to respond securely online at agcounts.usda.gov through the Respondent Portal, by mail, or fax. Those who do not respond by Nov. 14 may be contacted by a NASS representative to arrange an interview to complete the survey.

    All information reported by producers will be kept confidential, as required by federal law. NASS will publish the survey data Jan. 11, 2023, on the NASS website at nass.usda.gov and in the NASS Quick Stats searchable database at www.quickstats.nass.usda.gov.

    For more information about the Cost of Pollination Survey and NASS’s bee and honey program, visit www.nass.usda.gov/Surveys/Guide_to_NASS_Surveys/Bee_and_Honey/. NASS’s other honey bee reports include the Honey report published every March and the Honey Bee Colonies report published every August.

    These and all NASS reports are available at www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/. For more information, call the NASS Pacific Regional Field Office at 1-800-851-1127.

  • CA Tomato Processors Forecast Larger Crop In 2022

    USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service — As of January, California’s tomato processors reported they have, or will have, contracts for 12.2 million tons in 2022, which is an increase of 10% compared to 11.1 million contracted tons forecast in the August 2021 California Processing Tomato Report. Processors estimate that the contracted production for 2022 will come from 245,000 acres, generating an average yield of 49.8 tons per acre. The contracted planted acreage forecast is 7% higher than the 2021 acreage of 229,000 reported under contract in August.

    The USDA-NASS Pacific Regional Office surveyed California’s tomato processors for their intended contract acreage and tonnage for the upcoming 2022 season. The data reported by processors was either tonnage with derived acreage, or acreage with derived tonnage.

    This early processing tomato estimate is funded by the California League of Food Producers.

  • USDA to Conduct First-Ever Agroforestry Survey

    The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) is conducting the first-ever National Agroforestry Survey. Data collection begins Feb. 1 and concludes April 5, 2022. NASS will mail the survey to 318 farmers and ranchers in California to gather information on the five agroforestry practices used for climate, conservation and production benefits, including windbreaks, silvopasture, riparian forest buffers, alley cropping as well as forest farming and multi-story cropping.

    “In this first-ever survey, ag producers have the opportunity to share the different ways they manage valuable agroforestry resources,” said Gary R. Keough, director of the NASS Pacific Region Office. “The data will inform programs and policy to benefit both the landowners and farmers as well as the environment.”

    The survey is conducted cooperatively with the USDA National Agroforestry Center (NAC), which is a partnership between USDA’s Forest Service and Natural Resources Conservation Service. The NAC will release the summarized data in studies, press releases, and publications such as highlights. Highlights will give an overview of how agroforestry practices are used in regions across the United States.

    “Information shared directly from farmers and ranchers really is one of the best ways to learn what works and what doesn’t in agroforestry. We will use the data to discover the most effective, efficient and profitable ways climate-smart agroforestry practices are used, and share what we learn in a series of research reports to benefit U.S. farmers and ranchers,” said NAC Research Program Lead Matthew Smith.

    Producers can respond to the survey securely online at agcounts.usda.gov or by mail. The survey will take no longer than 50 minutes to complete if producers have all five agroforestry practices on their operations. Response time will be shorter if there are fewer practices to report. The information provided by farmers and ranchers is protected by federal law (Title V, Subtitle A, Public Law 107-347), which keeps respondent identity, operation, and answers confidential. For more information, visit www.nass.usda.gov/go/Agroforestry. For assistance with the survey, please call 888-424-7828. Subscribe to Agroforestry Connection for new agroforestry-related publications and other items of interest.

  • California Navel Orange Crop Forecast Down 14%

    USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service — The initial 2021-22 California Navel orange forecast is 70.0 million cartons, down 14% from the previous year. Of the total Navel orange forecast, 67.0 million cartons are estimated to be in the Central Valley. Cara Cara variety Navel orange production in the Central Valley is forecast at 6.0 million cartons. These forecasts are based on the results of the 2021-22 Navel Orange Objective Measurement (O.M.) Survey, which was conducted from June 15 to September 1, 2021. Estimated fruit set per tree, fruit diameter, trees per acre, bearing acreage, and oranges per box were used in the statistical models estimating production.

    This forecast includes production of conventional, organic, and specialty Navel oranges (including Cara Cara and Blood orange varieties).

    Survey data indicated a fruit set per tree of 239, down 25% from the previous year and b e l o w the five-year average of 344. The average September 1 diameter was 2.145 inches, below the five-year average of 2.208 inches. The Cara Cara orange set was 211 with a diameter of 2.146 inches.

    SURVEY SAMPLE

    A sample of 785 Navel orange groves was randomly selected proportional to county and variety bearing acreage, and 707 of the groves were utilized in this survey. Once a grove was randomly chosen and grower permission was granted, two trees were randomly selected. The Navel orange sample included conventional, organic, Cara Cara, and Blood orange groves.

    For each randomly selected tree, the trunk was measured along with all connected branches. A random number table was then used to select a branch, and then all connected branches from the randomly-selected branch were measured.

    This process was repeated until a branch was reached with no significant limbs beyond this point. This randomly-selected branch, called the terminal branch, was then closely inspected to count all fruit connected to this branch, as well as all of the fruit along the path from the trunk to the terminal branch. Since each selected path has a probability of selection associated with the path, a probability-based method was then applied to estimate a fruit count for the entire tree.

    In the last week of the survey period, fruit diameter measurements were made on the right quadrant of four trees surrounding the two trees of every third grove. These measurements were used to estimate an average fruit diameter per tree. Of the 707 utilized groves, 10 were in Madera County, 119 were in Fresno County, 419 were in Tulare County, and 157 were in Kern County.

    SURVEY HISTORY

    A Navel Orange Objective Measurement Survey has been conducted in the Central Valley every year since the 1984-85 crop year, except for the 1991-92 season due to a lack of funding. The data from the first two years were used for research purposes in developing crop-estimating models. The Cara Cara forecast was undertaken at the request of the California Citrus Advisory Committee.

  • 2019 California Almond Forecast Down 3.5 Percent

    The California Almond Objective Measurement Report, published today by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) National Agricultural Statistics Service – Pacific Regional Office (NASS/PRO), estimates that the 2019 crop will be 2.20 billion pounds, down 3.5% from the 2018 crop production of 2.28 billion pounds. The California Almond Objective Measurement Report is the official industry crop estimate.

    This year’s Objective Report projects an almond crop down 12% from the May 2019 California Almond Subjective Forecast of 2.5 billion pounds. The Objective Report collects data later in the growing season, closer to harvest, and is based on an actual count of nuts on the trees versus phone interviews with farmers, the method used for the Subjective Forecast.

    According to the Objective Report, the average nut set per tree is 4,667, down 17.8% from the 2018 almond crop. The Nonpareil average nut set per tree is 4,429, down 10.1% from last year’s set. The average kernel weight for all varieties sampled was 1.54 grams, unchanged from the 2018 average weight.

    “While the industry experienced less than ideal weather conditions this spring, California remains the best place in the world to grow almonds,” said Holly A. King, Kern County almond farmer and Chair of the Almond Board of California (ABC) Board of Directors. “As leaders in California agriculture and producers of 82 percent of the world’s almonds, we have made a public commitment to grow almonds in better, safer and healthier ways, protecting our communities and the environment. We feel a great sense of obligation to responsibly produce a healthy food accessible to people around the world.”

    Last year, the Almond Board of California’s Board of Directors announced the Almond Orchard 2025 Goals to focus on areas that define the California almond industry’s journey towards continuous improvement and commitment to sustainability.

    The amount of almond coproducts – hulls, shells and woody biomass – correlates with crop size, and the California almond industry is more committed than ever to finding new uses for these valuable products. In fact, achieving zero waste in California almond orchards by putting everything the industry grows to optimal use is one of the four goals established by the Board of Directors. The Almond Board is committed to finding high-value uses for almond coproducts that support California by creating a genuine bioeconomy where every coproduct is an input for another valuable product. ABC will continue to fund research to investigate how components of almond hulls and shells can be transformed to provide increased value for farmers as well as other industries such as food, pharmaceuticals and automotive.

    “California almond farmers produce the vast majority of the world’s almonds, and for every pound of kernels there are nearly three pounds of hulls and shells. With size comes great responsibility and the resources to continue to meet steadily growing demand for almonds and fund research into ways to grow almonds more sustainably,” said Richard Waycott, ABC president and CEO. “Our vision is to make life better by what we grow and how we grow.”

    Since 1973, almond farmers and processors have invested $80 million in research through the Almond Board. These funds have propelled the industry to make significant advancements in the areas of water, nutrient management, air quality, honey bee health and more, increasing farming efficiencies while minimizing environmental impacts.

     

     

     

    SAMPLING PROCEDURES

    To determine tree set, nuts are counted along a path within a randomly selected tree. Work begins at the trunk and progresses to the end of the terminal branch. Using a random number table, one branch is selected at each forking to continue the path. A branch’s probability of selection is directly proportional to its cross-sectional area. This methodology is used because of its statistical efficiency. The method also makes it possible to end up at any one of the tree’s numerous terminal branches.

    Since the selected path has a probability of selection associated with it, this probability is used to expand nut counts arriving at an estimated set for the entire tree.

    Along intermediate stages (i.e., the bearing surface between forkings), every fifth nut is picked. All nuts on the terminal branch are picked. These nuts are used to determine size and weight measurements.

    FIELD SAMPLING ACTIVITIES

    The survey began May 30 and sampling was completed by June 27. There were 1,634 trees sampled for the 2019 survey in 817 orchards. Additional orchards were not sampled for one of the following reasons:

    1) Orchard had been sprayed.

    2) Orchard had been recently irrigated and was wet.

    3) Orchard had been pulled.

    4) Grower would not grant permission or could not be contacted.

    The Objective Measurement Survey is funded by the Almond Board of California.

    DATA RELIABILITY

    The 80 percent confidence interval is from 2,050 million meat pounds to 2,350 million meat pounds. This means that the results of our sampling procedures will encompass the true mean 80 percent of the time.

     

  • California Grape Acreage Report 2018 Summary

    California’s 2018 grape acreage totaled 925,000 acres. Of the total grape acreage, 863,000 were bearing while 62,000 were non-bearing. The wine-type grape acreage is estimated at 637,000 acres. Of the total acres, 590,000 were bearing and 47,000 were non-bearing. Table-type grape acreage totaled 132,000 acres with 121,000 bearing and 11,000 non-bearing. Acreage of raisin-type grapes totaled 156,000 acres, of which 152,000 were bearing and 4,000 were non-bearing.

    The leading wine-type varieties continued to be Chardonnay and Cabernet Sauvignon. Flame Seedless was the leading table-type grape variety. Thompson Seedless continued to be the leading raisin-type variety and was utilized for raisins, fresh market, concentrate, and wine.

    Estimated-Grape-Acerage-table

     

    OBJECTIVES

    The California Department of Food and Agriculture partners with the Pacific Regional Office of the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) to conduct an annual acreage survey of California grape growers. The purpose of this survey is to provide annual grape acreage with information on new plantings and removals. It is a continuation of a long series of industry- funded grape acreage surveys.

    This report consists of two parts:

     Estimated grape acreage — bearing, non-bearing, and total.

    Detailed data by variety, and year planted — as voluntarily reported by grape growers and maintained in our database.

    With perfect information, the estimated grape acreage and the detailed data would be the same. However, this will never be the case for the following reasons:

    A voluntary survey of approximately 8,300 grape growers is unlikely to attain 100 percent completeness.

     It is difficult to detect growers who are planting grapes for the first time.

     The detailed data reflects vine removals from over 17,000 acres during the past twelve months. Of this number, significant acreage was harvested in 2018 prior to being pulled out. As a result, harvested acreage removed in 2018 is included in the estimated acreage, but excluded from the detailed data.

    PROCEDURES

    The major source of the grape detailed data was a questionnaire mailed to all grape growers from our database. The mailing was sent in late October 2018 to approximately 8,300 grape growers. The questionnaire contained previously reported crop, variety, and acreage information preprinted. Producers were asked to update the information with new plantings, removals, and any other corrections; new growers were mailed a blank questionnaire. Growers were given six weeks to respond by mail. A telephone follow-up was then undertaken. Field personnel personally visited large growers who did not respond by mail.

    To arrive at the estimated grape acreage, the grape acreage data base was compared with data provided from the 2017 Census of Agriculture and the Department of Pesticide Regulation.

    ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

    We sincerely thank the many farm operators, owners, and management firms providing the information. Funding was provided by an assessment on wine grapes plus funding from the California Table Grape Commission and the Raisin Administrative Committee.

    Table 1- All Grapes

     

    Table 3

     

    Table 4

     

    Table 5

     

    Grape Variety synonyms

     

     

  • USDA Estimates Record-Breaking 2018 Almond Crop

    Forecast estimated at 2.45 billion pounds for the 2018 California almond crop

    MODESTO, Calif. – Despite concerns earlier in the year about freezing weather during almond bloom, careful management by California farmers and newer orchards coming into production have resulted in a record-breaking crop according to the 2018 Almond Objective Measurement Report. This confirms earlier predictions from the 2018 Almond Subjective Forecast released in May.

    Published today by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) National Agricultural Statistics Service – Pacific Regional Office (NASS/PRO), the Objective Report is the official industry crop estimate. The report finds that the 2018 crop estimate is up 7.9% from the 2017 crop production of 2.27 billion pounds.

    “2018 looks to be a milestone year for California almonds with over one million almond-bearing acres now in California,” said Holly King, chair, Almond Board of California (ABC) and Kern County almond grower. “However, it is not just about the number of acres, it’s also about growing more almonds per acre. As we have grown in size, we have continued to find ways to grow almonds more efficiently, using fewer resources and leaving a smaller footprint per nut.”

    The California almond community, through ABC, has invested nearly $70 million over more than 40 years to build a foundation of research on improving how almonds are grown, processed and consumed. This culture of continuous improvement brings benefits to local communities and the environment while helping farmers be responsible stewards of the land.

    Today’s Objective Report follows the Subjective Forecast, which provides an early estimate of the coming crop after it has set on the trees. The Objective Report collects data later in the growing season, closer to harvest, and is based on an actual count of nuts on the trees. This year’s Objective Report projects an almond crop up 6.5% from the May forecast of 2.30 billion pounds.

    “California is home to the world’s most efficient almond farmers, who produce more than 80 percent of the world’s supply,” said Richard Waycott, president and CEO, ABC. “The California almond community continues to meet the steadily growing demand for almonds, supporting healthy and diverse diets around the globe.”

    Per the Objective Report, the average nut set per tree is 5,677, down 0.6% from the 2017 almond crop. The Nonpareil average nut set is 4,924, down 13.9% from last year’s set. The average kernel weight for all varieties sampled was 1.54 grams, down 1.9% compared to the 2017 average weight of 1.57 grams.

    For More Information:

    Ashley Bloemhof

    (209) 531-7628

    abloemhof@almondboard.com