California Ag Network

Tag: bearing acreage

  • USDA Releases 2026 Almond Harvest Forecast

    The 2026 California Almond Forecast, published by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), estimates that the crop harvested in 2026 will come in at 2.7 billion pounds, down 1% from the previous year. Forecasted yield is 1,940 pounds per acre, unchanged from the previous season.

    “According to the polled growers, the industry is expecting a modestly smaller crop in 2026 compared to last year. This is an early estimate, and we will see how the crop progresses over the coming months,” said Almond Board of California (ABC) President and CEO, Clarice Turner. “While this may signal tighter supply, California remains the world’s leading almond supplier, and ABC is focused on expanding global demand. Despite higher costs, regulatory pressures, and supply chain challenges, California almond farmers continue to deliver a reliable, high-quality crop.”

    As of December 2025, the ABC Board of Directors voted to cease funding for the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Objective Measurement Report, making a change in California almond crop estimates going forward.

    This Subjective Forecast will be the only report from NASS for the coming crop year. The estimate is based on opinions from a survey of around 500 growers conducted from April 21 to May 6. The sample of growers was selected at random and were grouped by size of operation to ensure all growers were proportionally represented. Respondents had the option to report their data by mail, phone or online.

    This Subjective Forecast comes two weeks after Land IQ’s 2026 Standing Acreage Initial Estimate found that bearing almond acreage in California decreased by 15,227 acres from the previous year to 1,385,870 million bearing acres.

    NASS conducts the annual Subjective Forecast to provide the California almond industry with the data needed to make informed business decisions.

    — Story Contributed by the Almond Board of California

  • Bearing Almond Acreage Drops for First Time in Decades

    California’s bearing almond acreage decreased over the past year — the first drop in 30 years — according to Land IQ’s 2026 Standing Acreage Initial Estimate as bearing acreage stabilizes.

    Initial 2026 bearing acreage is estimated at 1,385,870 acres, compared to the 2025 Land IQ Standing Acreage Final Estimate of 1,401,097 million bearing acres. This reflects a decrease of 15,227 bearing acres over the past year.

    Land IQ’s recent Initial Estimate does not include total almond acreage. It looked at bearing acreage, specifically orchards planted before 2024 that have matured enough to produce a crop for the coming 2026 harvest. Land IQ’s final report on total acreage and non-bearing acres — including newer plantings not mature enough to produce almonds for commercial consumption — will come out in November.

    In addition, Land IQ estimated 47,588 acres of orchard removals, adding to the nearly 49,197 acres removed in the 2024-25 crop year.

    The drop in bearing acres is due to orchard removals and a slowdown in new plantings. This comes on the heels of Land IQ’s report in 2025 that found that California’s total almond acreage had dropped four years in a row to 1.52 million acres.

    “While we’re seeing stabilization in bearing acreage, global demand remains strong and is the foundation of our industry,” said ABC President and CEO Clarice Turner. “Continued, strategic investment in market development is essential to supporting long-term growth and to position California almonds for the future.”

    The Land IQ report is a snapshot of the coming 2026 harvest but does not offer an estimate on the actual almond production for the 2026-27 crop year. A production estimate will be released on May 12 with USDA-NASS’ Subjective Estimate. As of December 2025, the Almond Board of California Board of Directors voted to cease funding for the July USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) Objective Measurement Report, making a change in California almond crop estimates going forward.

    Land IQ’s final acreage estimate in November of 2026 will cover total acres, bearing acreage, non-bearing acreage and potentially abandoned acres and removals from Sept. 1, 2025 to Aug. 31, 2026. Please note that the almond crop year runs Aug. 1-July 31, so this estimate includes the harvest for the 2026-27 crop year.

    Land IQ’s Initial Estimate and its Final Acreage Estimate in November are commissioned by the Almond Board of California to provide statistical transparency and a robust picture of California almonds to industry stakeholders around the world. In 2018, ABC first commissioned Land IQ, a Sacramento-based agricultural and environmental scientific research and consulting firm, to develop a comprehensive, living map of California almonds, with the first report issued in 2019. The map is the result of more than a decade of research

    — Story Contributed by the Almond Board of California

  • 2025-26 California Mandarin Forecast Down Significantly

    The 2025-26 California forecast for only the Tango and W. Murcott Afourer Mandarin varieties is 33.0 million 40-lb. cartons. This forecast is based on the results of the 2025-26 Mandarin Objective Measurement (O.M.) Survey, which was conducted from July 1 to August 28, 2025. Estimated fruit set per tree, fruit diameter, trees per acre, bearing acreage, and mandarins per box were used in the statistical models estimating production.

    Survey data indicated a fruit set per tree of 504, down 24% from the previous year. The average diameter from the survey was 1.359 inches, up 1% from last year for these varieties. Bearing acreage is estimated at 35,000, which results in a yield of 943 40-lb. cartons per acre.

    Funding for the survey was provided by the California Citrus industry.

    SURVEY HISTORY

    This is the third year the USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service, Pacific Regional Office has published a production forecast of Tango and W. Murcott Afourer Mandarin varieties. Fruit counts and size measurements have been collected each year since 2020 to build the dataset for the statistical models.

    SURVEY SAMPLE

    A sample of 337 Tango and W. Murcott Afourer Mandarin groves were randomly selected proportional to county and variety bearing acreage, with 332 of these groves utilized in this survey. Once a grove was randomly chosen and grower permission was granted, two trees were randomly selected from each grove. For each randomly selected tree, its trunk was measured along with all connected branches. A random number table was then used to select a branch, and then all connected branches from the randomly selected branch were measured.

    This process was repeated until a branch was reached with no significant limbs beyond it. This randomly selected branch, called the terminal branch, was then closely inspected to count all fruit connected to it, as well as all fruit along the path from the trunk to the terminal branch. Since each selected path has a probability of selection associated with it, a probability-based method was then applied to estimate a fruit count for the entire tree.

    In the last week of the survey period, fruit diameter measurements were collected on the right quadrant of four trees surrounding the two sampled trees. These measurements were used to estimate an average fruit diameter per tree.