California Ag Network

Tag: 2018 Almond Forecast

  • USDA Estimates Record-Breaking 2018 Almond Crop

    Forecast estimated at 2.45 billion pounds for the 2018 California almond crop

    MODESTO, Calif. – Despite concerns earlier in the year about freezing weather during almond bloom, careful management by California farmers and newer orchards coming into production have resulted in a record-breaking crop according to the 2018 Almond Objective Measurement Report. This confirms earlier predictions from the 2018 Almond Subjective Forecast released in May.

    Published today by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) National Agricultural Statistics Service – Pacific Regional Office (NASS/PRO), the Objective Report is the official industry crop estimate. The report finds that the 2018 crop estimate is up 7.9% from the 2017 crop production of 2.27 billion pounds.

    “2018 looks to be a milestone year for California almonds with over one million almond-bearing acres now in California,” said Holly King, chair, Almond Board of California (ABC) and Kern County almond grower. “However, it is not just about the number of acres, it’s also about growing more almonds per acre. As we have grown in size, we have continued to find ways to grow almonds more efficiently, using fewer resources and leaving a smaller footprint per nut.”

    The California almond community, through ABC, has invested nearly $70 million over more than 40 years to build a foundation of research on improving how almonds are grown, processed and consumed. This culture of continuous improvement brings benefits to local communities and the environment while helping farmers be responsible stewards of the land.

    Today’s Objective Report follows the Subjective Forecast, which provides an early estimate of the coming crop after it has set on the trees. The Objective Report collects data later in the growing season, closer to harvest, and is based on an actual count of nuts on the trees. This year’s Objective Report projects an almond crop up 6.5% from the May forecast of 2.30 billion pounds.

    “California is home to the world’s most efficient almond farmers, who produce more than 80 percent of the world’s supply,” said Richard Waycott, president and CEO, ABC. “The California almond community continues to meet the steadily growing demand for almonds, supporting healthy and diverse diets around the globe.”

    Per the Objective Report, the average nut set per tree is 5,677, down 0.6% from the 2017 almond crop. The Nonpareil average nut set is 4,924, down 13.9% from last year’s set. The average kernel weight for all varieties sampled was 1.54 grams, down 1.9% compared to the 2017 average weight of 1.57 grams.

    For More Information:

    Ashley Bloemhof

    (209) 531-7628

    abloemhof@almondboard.com

  • Record-Breaking Almond Crop Predicted for 2018

    In spite of concerns about freezing weather during almond bloom, the U.S. Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) is predicting a record crop in 2018. According to the NASS 2018 Almond Subjective Forecast issued today, California almond orchards are expected to produce 2.30 billion pounds of nuts this year, up 1.3% from last year’s 2.27 billion-pound crop.[1]

    Karen Barindelli observes a solid 2018 almond crop in her Modesto orchard

    “Almond farmers used a variety of techniques to manage freezing nighttime temperatures in some parts of the Central Valley during bloom this year and those efforts appear to have worked,” said Richard Waycott, president and CEO, Almond Board of California. “Every year weather impacts farming, but almond trees thrive in our state because California is home to the world’s most efficient almond farmers, who continually improve their practices and rise to the challenge.”

    The Almond Subjective Forecast, the first of two California almond forecast reports for this year’s crop, is based on opinions obtained from randomly selected almond farmers located throughout the state via a phone survey conducted in April and May. Farmers were asked to indicate their almond yield per acre from last year and expected yield for the current year based on field observations. Those estimates are then combined and extrapolated to arrive at the numbers reported in the Almond Subjective Forecast.

    While the Almond Subjective Forecast provides early estimates of the coming crop after it is set, the 2018 California Almond Objective Report, which is released in July, uses a more statistically rigorous methodology. It is typically the more accurate of the two reports. Objective Report data is based on actual almond counts and measurements taken in orchards throughout the state, starting in May and ending in July.

    The Objective Report will be released July 5, 2018, at noon PDT. Both the report and the forecast are conducted by the USDA and funded by the Almond Board of California to provide almond farmers, processors and shippers with estimates to help them make business decisions.

    Last month, the 2017 California Almond Acreage Report showed bearing acres, that is orchards old enough to produce a crop, were up 6% at 1 million acres. Total almond acres for 2017 were estimated at 1.33 million acres, up 7% from the previous year.

    Almond acreage in California continues to experience significant increases.

    [1] USDA-NASS. 2018 California Almond Subjective Forecast. May 2018.